It may not feel like it, but there are only ten games left of the League One season. That means that there are 30 points to play for. Without paying too much attention to our rival’s potential results, after all, we can’t influence these outcomes, how many points can we expect this Sunderland team to actually pick up? I’ll try and go through these remaining fixtures and although predictions are a mug’s game and have one obvious pratfall, that they can be looked at after the results and the reader can see how wrong I was, I will try and illustrate the enormity of the task at hand. Simply put, we need a hell of a run to go up. A run that we have never yet put together at the climax of a League One season.
FLEETWOOD (H) 3 POINTS
You have to look at this game as a nailed on three points for any side serious about mounting a promotion push. Fleetwood, winless in five, coming to the Stadium of Light low on confidence just as we seem to be hitting our stride, should mean a convincing win for us. Obviously, these factors often don’t go in our favour. At the weekend after all, Charlton were in poor form going into the game. If we ever want to get out of this League, the team needs to stop dropping points against poor opposition. We need to be in a position where we can no longer chalk things up to ‘typical Sunderland’ result and we need to blow these teams away. The fact remains that we need to win and if we don’t, others around us will. Anything less than a win is not good enough.
CREWE (H) 3 POINTS
Two home games against two of the worst teams in the League, what could possibly go wrong? Six points from these games is not too much to ask for a club of our stature and we have been blessed by these seemingly routine fixtures. We have played some good stuff in our games against Wigan and Charlton, but we don’t look like scoring from open play. Hopefully the defensive frailties of these two sides mean that we can start scoring goals that aren’t set pieces and go into the Lincoln game with high confidence.
LINCOLN (A) 3 POINTS
Another game, another side doing poorly this season. Their best moment of their campaign was when they dismantled us at home earlier this year, so we should be well aware of the potential for an upset. Reassuringly, Alex Neil has made us tougher to play against than we were in mid January and we certainly have a nastier streak than before, more than matching some of the physical sides in the League under Neil. I can’t see us putting in as insipid a performance as before. I also can’t see Chris Maguire scoring another hat-trick against us or getting any goals for that matter. Bold, given the propensity for every ex-player to score against us, but this is a game I have every confidence in us getting three points from. In the 2019/20 season, we did string together a run of three wins in a row, going into the last ten games and I expect us to do the same again. We are starting to play well and if we actually finish the chances we create, we should beat these teams with relative ease.
ROTHERHAM (H) 0 POINTS
By now (hopefully) a decent run of wins will afford us a small buffer and the loss of three points won’t be too damaging. I hope for a performance like the one against Wigan, but realistically, this will be a tough game. Let’s say we lose, so out of our next four games we have nine points. It’s also worth noting that this game will be postponed because of the international weekend and we might end up playing it when Rotherham are already promoted. Fingers crossed…
GILLINGHAM (H) 3 POINTS
Another home game, another poor side. Every game in the run in is must win and we must take full advantage of our run of some, admittedly on paper, easy games. Could we see Wigan, Rotherham or MK Dons losing this game or some of the previous fixtures? We have the easiest run of games out of any of the sides battling for play-off places and I expect us to go on a decent run, accruing maximum points from these easier games. Hopefully, we have had our obligatory bad run and we can get 12 points from an available 15, putting us in strong contention for a play-off place and sending a message to others in the top half.
OXFORD (A) 0 POINTS
Oxford are picking up points steadily and seemed to have come from nowhere in recent weeks, overtaking us in the process. I am going to say, for arguments sake, that we get beat here. This allows for a potential draw earlier in the run. In this hypothetical future League table of my own mind, we now have 12 points from an available 18, something we haven’t achieved towards this part of a League One campaign ever before.
SHREWSBURY (H) 3 POINTS
Another must win home game. How will Shrewsbury be doing at this point in the season you may ask? Most likely, they will be around where they always are, comfortably bottom half, playing poor football and grinding out a few shock wins here and there. Hopefully, they won’t get one away at our place. We have already seen one defensive player we lost in January play a blinder at the SOL, will Tom Flanagan play another? I can assure you, no. The pressure will get to him on the day and he will make a costly error, allowing Stewart to be clean through on goal. After consulting my crystal ball, it looks like Stewart rounds the keeper quite comfortably and slots it home. We come away with all three points.
PLYMOUTH (A) 0 POINTS
This is a long trip and the journey back will be an ordeal for our travelling supporters. Plymouth Argyle, 4th in League One, take all three points. Maybe. Essentially the way my predictions work is by believing that we will beat the worst teams in the League and believing that we will succumb to the division’s better sides. I am not like Tiresias, the blind prophet of antiquity. I certainly wasn’t punished by Hera for separating two copulating snakes, nor was I forced to walk the earth as a woman for 7 years. No, my method is simple. Any half decent side beats us; we beat the rubbish teams, thus affording us a realistic estimate of how many points to expect overall, whilst allowing for a shock result within the total amount of points.
CAMBRIDGE (H) 3 POINTS
Following on from the explanation of my system, Cambridge fall into the category of rubbish League One teams. We beat them, leaving us on the verge of play-off places. With other teams on decent runs, it's tight at the top. We must win at Morecambe.
MORECAMBE (A) 1 POINT
We need a win to secure play-offs, Morecambe need a win to beat the drop. A draw suits neither party, but other results go our way and we finish 5th. Morecambe go down and we can look forward to the play-offs.
I say a draw against Morecambe because I think 19 points form an available 30 is realistic. Last year, we slumped towards the end of the season, achieving just 10 points in our last ten matches. The season before was cancelled prematurely and we didn’t make the play-offs. The 2018/19 season saw us achieve 15 points from our last ten games, being beaten by two of the worst teams in League One that year in Fleetwood and Southend in the last two games. Based on recent seasons, 19 points from 30 is actually incredibly optimistic and suggests we have the ability to pick up 4 more points from this position than our previous best.
The task at hand is enormous. Whilst predictions are a bit of a guessing game, this exercise in predicting where our points will come from is illustrative of the predicament we find ourselves in and demonstrates what is necessary to get into the play-off places securely. It is still all to play for and we have some easier fixtures in the run in than in seasons prior. It is up to the Lads under Alex Neil’s stewardship to get us to the play-off’s and secure our ticket to the great lottery. It certainly won’t be easy.
If we did get 19 points, taking us to 79 points, that would have been enough in the 18/19 season and the 20/21 season to get a play-off place (obviously the 19/20 season is discounted). Each season since the 09/10 season in League One, 79 points gets you into the play off places, often very comfortably. But, it remains to be seen whether we can even achieve this – we might even get more.
I have welcomed you into the future League One table that exists entirely within my own head, all that remains for us to do as fans to is to back the Lads as we have all season and as ever, hope for the best and keep the faith.
