Sunderland will face Newcastle United tomorrow in the two teams’ first meeting in the FA Cup since 1956 and the first meeting whatsoever since 2016.
FORM
Starting off with the visitors, Newcastle have been in atrocious form since beating Manchester United 1-0 back in early December. Since then they’ve managed just one win in eight and of those eight, six have been defeats and another has been a draw which ended up with a penalty shootout loss to Chelsea. Heavy defeats have been suffered at the hands of Everton and Tottenham, they’ve been knocked out of Europe entirely, the EFL Cup and recently Chris Wood scored a hattrick against them. This has not only lead to this game suddenly being their most important of the season (losing to us would be a massive embarrassment given the gulf in squad valuation and the FA Cup is their only chance of silverware remaining this campaign), but has caused some of their support to question the position of the once untouchable Eddie Howe. It’s fair to say that things aren’t going well and a defeat to their most bitter rivals could very well be the final nail in the coffin for Howe, especially when you consider immediately after us they play Manchester City and Aston Villa.
Meanwhile, we have fared much better in recent weeks. The sacking of Tony Mowbray was overall unpopular amongst our fans and did spark fears that our mixed form would suddenly become bad form. Although we haven’t exactly been consistent we remain sixth and have beaten promotion rivals West Brom, Leeds and Hull since Mowbray left. A heavy defeat to Coventry in Beale’s first game was something we could have done without and dropping points to bottom of the league Rotherham was at the very least uninspiring. Overall though, it’s hard to argue with seven points from the last possible nine and a striker finally scoring in our last fixture was definitely a great way of giving us some optimism going into what will certainly be our hardest game since earning promotion back into the Championship.
INJURIES AND SUSPENSIONS
Newcastle have been the talk of an injury crisis since the Big Bang, or at least that’s what it feels like, but they are missing a few key players which will be a boost for our hopes of causing an upset. Kieran Trippier is a doubt for the game but will be subject to a late fitness test, the right back has been in poor form as of late but of course remains a very effective defender on his day. Joe Willock has been talked about as a huge miss for Newcastle in the middle of the park and he will be absent for this fixture following a setback to an Achilles injury. Callum Wilson won’t feature either, second only to Isak in the top scorer list for the Magpies this season; this is a good thing for our chances tomorrow. Summer signing Harvey Barnes and long-serving player Jacob Murphy will both miss out, two big absences for NUFC. Ex-Sunderland player Javier Manquillo is injured, alongside Scottish international Elliott Anderson and ex-Villa man Matt Targett. To round off this quite lengthy list, first choice goalkeeper Nick Pope is still having problems with a shoulder injury as well as this Sandro Tonali is currently in the early parts of serving a lengthy suspension due to his involvement in a betting scandal that emerged earlier this season.
We, thankfully, have a much shorter list of names out with injuries as well as no suspensions. Patrick Roberts is a doubt for the game and will go for a scan to assess whether it’s feasible for him to play or not, he’s a good player so it’s preferable that he’s in the starting XI even despite his lack of goals since the end of last season. Bradley Dack’s injuries continue to haunt him and our summer addition will miss out. Unfortunately Dennis Cirkin will play no part and this tie will probably come too soon for Jay Matete, who’s return has been much anticipated on Wearside but there is a chance he could be in the squad. Niall Huggins will be a notable absence, the Welshman had been playing well for SAFC but an injury he suffered in the closing stages of the home game against Coventry City will see him out for the rest of the season. Corry Evans and Elliott Embleton both continue their recoveries from long term injuries, this would have been a good game for Evans so him not being able to play is frustrating.
PREDICTION
Every single Sunderland fan has probably been asked ‘what do you think the score will be’ multiple times since the draw and there are many ways this game could go. If you’re going down the optimistic route you could say that Newcastle’s injuries and general tiredness will get the best of them and an energetic, youthful Sunderland side will capitalise on this and come away with a narrow victory and a place in the fourth round. There’s also the pessimistic route - Newcastle’s squad is simply too good for us and no matter how well we play we’ll be defeated, probably not heavily but we won’t progress nonetheless. The middle ground is to predict a draw and I think that’s the most likely outcome. You can’t ignore the injury list Newcastle have, or their dire away record, but equally you can’t dismiss the gulf in squad value or quality between the two sides. This is the FA Cup though and anything is possible. Sunderland are the more likely of the two sides to get the first goal, spurred on by a voiceful crowd and that may be enough to win the game but I don’t see Newcastle not giving everything to get back into the game, remember a sizeable portion of their squad is made up of Newcastle fans. 1-1 is my prediction and that would still let us claim a tenth derby in a row without losing to them which would be a massive embarrassment for them.
