Oxford are without a win in 3, having lost to relegation battlers Morecambe earlier in this week. Former Sunderland goalkeeper Trevor Carson’s heroics denied Oxford a deserved point. Alex Neil watched the match and admitted their performance was well worthy of three points.
Morecambe made it hard for Oxford in the second half, dropping deep in that typical way that all lesser teams seem to do against us.
This weekend the game will no doubt be more open. Plymouth have recently beaten Oxford in a game in which possession was shared extremely evenly- 51% to 49% and we can expect an open game which will favour our attacking play. Even though we struggle to find the back of the net, it is made harder by the way in which teams have set up defensively in recent weeks. It will be made easier with Nathan Broadhead involved, a player who has a great instinct in front of goal and should feature in some capacity.
The question for Neil is how to set up defensively. Oxford are the highest scoring team in the division. When we played against the second highest scorers, Wigan, we opted for four at the back, soaked up a bit of pressure and looked very capable at the back, as well as highly functional going forward. Neil has got us looking very assured defensively and in the game against Wigan, Arby Xhemajli came in for his first League One appearance, played impeccably and now no longer features at all.
This is testament to the work Neil has done in shoring up a leaky defence which had shipped in 10 goals in 3 games and now, with players rotated, we have strength in depth. Previous guaranteed starters have dropped out, Callum Doyle being rested after a gruelling first senior campaign and now we find ourselves comfortably playing three at the back, over the past few weeks , often with only one recognised centre half. Meanwhile, the top scorers have scored 2 in 3, so other teams have kept them quiet effectively in recent weeks. There is no reason to fear them and we should persist with the three at the back which the players are accustomed to.
If we put Oxford to the sword, we can effectively stunt their top 6 push and pile pressure on them. If we get a win, that’ll see them winless in 4 with just 4 games to go (Oxford have played 41 games, SAFC have played 40). We can derail their promotion campaign as they still have tricky fixtures remaining – notably Rotherham and the league’s form team MK Dons. These games are transformed into six pointers if we get a good result on Saturday and alleviate a bit of pressure on us for the run in.
Our games against Oxford are often cagey affairs in which we are frequently held 1-1. They are a tough side to beat, but we have won 3 out of 4 of our last encounters against them. We are both perennial promotion hopefuls who seem to falter at the key moments over the last few seasons and we can help ensure they are disappointed yet again with a victory.
Like every game against a traditionally smaller club, the occasion is momentous for them. With Sunderland in town, each game has an added edge, even without how important the game is for the League One table. Alex Neil has demonstrated his knack for game management and will have a plan B to fall back on, should it be necessary.
History says this fixture should be 1-1 and if it is, it isn’t the end of the world for us. It isn’t for the U’s either, but it doesn’t do them much good. Hopefully an open game gives us a platform to showcase our ability going forward. When games are open, we can get a hold of the ball and work it much more effectively. 3 points at the weekend and we go into the Shrewsbury game for a completely different test against a team who no doubt will stick everyone behind the ball.
For once at least, it promises to be an exciting (if a little nervy) fixture in the third tier, one in which our players and fans will relish. Oxford are out of sorts and its a gilt-edged chance for us to grab a win.
