"Everyone has a plan until you get punched in the face." So goes the Mike Tyson quote. Admittedly, he probably wasn’t thinking about punching yourself in the face.
Sunderland AFC have a plan. Sometimes it’s even more sophisticated than that; it's a model. If we all believe in the model, the model will come good. That belief is being sorely tested after a series of slaps in the face committed by the club on its own fans.
Of course, it's nice to have a plan. For much of my time supporting Sunderland it seemed as though we didn't have any sort of plan. So, fans rightly embraced the idea that Kyril Louis-Dreyfus and Kristian Speakman had a plan for Sunderland AFC. Hope and optimism are the sustenance for all football fans. Like Ted Lasso, we want to believe but, hang on a minute...
The 0-3 thumping, resounding loss at home to Coventry put the crowning turd on a hat trick of December decisions that were, at best, ill-judged, at worst arrogantly naïve: sack Mowbray, appoint Beale, prioritise your biggest rival’s fans over your own loyal fans.
I’m not convinced Mowbray could have got us promoted to be honest but, having dispensed with his services, I think that will become a laughable statement by the end of the season. The appointment of Michael Beale as his replacement currently seems a questionable decision at best. There is lots of evidence on recruitment processes that interview panels have an unconscious bias towards people like them. It is why most public bodies require some sort of representation of different demographics and background on panels. If you have a panel of young men, brought up on FIFA and football manager, The Premier League Product, Moneyball and data analytics, and you then interview someone with those exact same influences: he looks like us, he talks like us…
It's hard to believe this wasn’t part of the scenario in which Michael Beale is the answer to the question. The fact that, like Mowbray and Neil before him, he was unemployed and therefore the cheapest option seems to be more of a trend than a coincidence.
I want my club to be run sustainably. I don’t want us to go bust and I know we must use our resources sensibly. However, winning promotion from the Championship and making a profit is a very difficult model to make successful. In fact, shorn of parachute payments, who could claim to have ever achieved it? How many clubs have turned a profit in the Championship in the last ten years? Zero. So, we must think we're pretty clever if that's the plan.
Firstly, now boringly, a truism, it's very difficult to win football games without a centre forward. You can win the odd game but over a season you won’t be successful. There is a reason most teams throughout the history of football have included a centre forward, an out and out striker. It gives you, not just a goal threat but it opens up space elsewhere on the pitch, it challenges the defenders, makes them make decisions all the time. We have absolutely zero presence in the 18-yard box. How can your wide players be threatening if there's no one in the middle?
Secondly, too much of the game, we lack the qualities that might not show up in data analytics: desire, bravery, a bit of nous to not give away sill free kicks, to see a game out. We look so lightweight at times. All tippy-tappy intricate plays that move you 10 yards up the pitch eventually. I bet we look amazing in 6-a-side practice games, little redonda drills in tight spaces, making lovely little triangles in keep-ball sessions.
Out on the wide, blustery expanses of Championship pitches you need a bit more purpose, you need a sense of urgency in your play. For all our talented young prospects, you suspect a good manager would love playing against us. (Mark Robbins is a very good manager. A more ambitious club may have considered trying to get him in the other dugout for that game?)
Beale's first game in charge against Coventry was one of the most dispiriting first games in charge I can remember. Since then, a very good win at Hull in a tight game, a drab point at rock-bottom Rotherham, an excellent win against Preston, the least said about the meek submission to Newcastle the better, and the inevitable late loss to Ipswich. Six games of football and one, maybe two, really good halves out of a dozen.
I hope Beale turns it round, I think we all do, but what’s currently on the pitch is miles off Premier League standards. Off the pitch to equate standards of professionalism to non-league would be harsh on some very well-run non-league clubs. The handling of the derby game was a disgraceful fiasco in every single decision taken. Added to previous disingenuous information about ownership, the shambles of a ticket office and fans not being able to buy merch from their own club and it all adds up to the lowest fan-mood since the current regime took over. How do they pick it up from here? I hope they have a cunning plan.
